Oscar Predictions

Having more or less hit it out of the park two years ago but having egg on my face last year, I've become a bit more cautious in my approach to predicting the winners of next week's Oscars. Perhaps I don't need to, for this looks like a fairly easy year to predict, especially awards like Best Actor and Best Director. Some (like the top award) are far more challenging. For my take on who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated for awards at next week's Academy Awards, read on.

But before I begin, a word on #OscarsSoWhite: They are. They always have been, and at least for the near future, they always will be. We've known this since 1996, when the media first started reporting on it (in People magazine of all places), and so it shouldn't be surprising, given that the vast majority of its members are male and virtually all of them are white. But their excuse is often to say that they are not the disease but the symptom. This is partially true. The Oscars reward movies made mostly by Hollywood, an industry that does not make movies by, of, or for people of color.

But the Academy has less of a case in the past two years. Last year, Selma, a kind of movie that the Academy usually salivates over, only earned two nominations, and this year, despite a considerable number of potential candidates (like Michael B. Jordan, Corey Hawkins, Ryan Coogler, Idris Elba, Oshea Jackson Jr., Jason Mitchell, Benicio Del Toro, and Samuel L. Jackson, among others), the Oscars nominated mediocre performances from actors like (with all due respect to them) Matt Damon, Mark Ruffalo, and Christian Bale. People, especially people of color, have more than enough reasons to be frustrated. I don't know if the Academy's recent measures will help solve the issue. We'll simply have to wait and see.

But given the lack of diversity in the nominations (and considering just how friggan boring the show in recent years has become), I might not watch them this year.

Beyond that, here are some predictions:

Best Picture
What will win: The Revenant
What should win: Room
What should have been nominated: Inside Out

The Revenant has successfully squeezed by as the front-runner for the top prize, as Spotlight, despite some early buzz and impressive wins, fell behind. Make no mistake about it: this is still very much a horse race, and don't be too surprised if a dark horse movie like Mad Max: Fury Road pulls off an upset. The Revenant is not much better of a movie than Spotlight or some of the other nominees, but the Academy will likely be impressed by just how epic a movie The Revenent is, and it might be able to win by riding Leonardo DiCaprio's coattails, as he's guaranteed a win for his acting in the film.

Best Director
Who will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (The Revenant)
Who should win: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Who should have been nominated: Ridley Scott (The Martian)

I remain a moviegoer who still is not the biggest fan of Innaritu, but this is his best movie and best work as a director. The Academy might be uninterested in giving it to him again this year (he won last year for Birdman), and it would make him the first since the 1950s.

I'm rooting for George Miller, whose Mad Max: Fury Road is one of the most active movies I've ever seen. That being said, both Innaritu and Miller (along with a host of other directors in the past several years) have succeeded in making movies look authentic again, and so both should be applauded.

Best Actress
Who will win: Brie Larson (Room)
Who should win: Brie Larson (Room)

Brie Larson is simply astonishing in Room, the best film of the year and perhaps the decade. She plays a kidnapped mother who has been forced to raise her young son (played by Jacob Tremblay) in a shed they've been held hostage in for years. This is the most emotionally intense performance of the year, and yet Larson makes it look incredibly easy. She also deserves praise for working so well with a young actor like Tremblay, and it's a real shame that he was not nominated. Tremblay not receiving a nomination is the rob of the year.

Best Actor
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Who should have been nominated: Michael B. Jordan (Creed)

Like Larson, DiCaprio also gives a rather messianic and committed performance. It's not a very vocal performance, as he's often alone in the wilderness and his throat has been damaged by a bear attack, so more is required of him. As many have pointed out, it's as if he's doing his very best to scream loudly and clearly at the Academy that if surviving filming in the harsh winter of North America won't win him an Oscar, nothing will.

Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Who should win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Vikander had an amazing 2015, and in The Danish Girl as artist Gerda Wegener (the wife of artist Lill Elbe, who became one of the first to receive sex reassignment surgery), she shows a variety of different qualities: smart, funny, vulnerable, angry, sexy, sympathetic. If Vikander has shown us just how tremendous she can be in the movies, particularly with The Danish Girl and Ex Machina, just think of what a wonder she will be to watch in the future. I can't wait to see what she'll show us next.

Note: You may have noticed that there are no "who should have been nominated" for both female acting categories. Hollywood has a problem with racial diversity; they also have a problem with gender diversity. Year after year, there are enormous amounts of great male roles and fewer female ones.

Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Who should win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Who should have been nominated: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)

Stallone in some respects is lucky in that Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation was not nominated and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies never seemed to catch momentum. After winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, Stallone is in a strong position. Momentum or no momentum, he deserves it. In Creed, the seventh installment of a franchise he helped create in 1976 (he wrote and starred in the first six and was the director of four of them), he may not get beat up like he used to, as he's now the mentor to the son of his former adversary-turned-ally, but his appearance as Rocky Balboa here is a remarkably subtle one, with enormous weight behind it.

Best Original Score
Who will win: Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
Who should win: Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
Who should have been nominated: Michael Giacchio (Inside Out)

Ennio Morricone is 87 years old, a legend not only of Italian cinema, but cinema as a whole. His score for The Mission is spiritual, hypnotic, and empowering. Similar adjectives could be used to describe his score for The Untouchables. Morricone's music for The Mission lost to Herbie Hancock for Round Midnight. It was one of five loses out of over 500 scores. His music for The Untouchables wasn't even nominated.

Morricone might be most recognizable for his western films music, even though, as he has pointed out in the past, westerns only account for eight percent of his music. Still, you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who hasn't heard his music for Sergio Leone's Dollars trilogy--A Fistful of Dollars, For a Few Dollars More, and The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Like the films of the trilogy, Morricone's music gets better with each one.

Morricone may not like being recognized as a composer for music for westerns, but indeed he is nominated for this year's Academy Awards for The Hateful Eight. But a win for Morricone shouldn't been seen as a career prize. It is, in fact, the best score of the year. It's haunting and appropriately so for such a horrifyingly violent movie.

Other predictions:

Best Visual Effects: Star Wars--The Force Awakens
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Documentary: Amy

Best Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road

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The Revenant

“Pain is temporary, film is forever.” That quote is from Leonardo DiCaprio in a recent interview. The viewer witnesses in the new film The Revannt just how much DiCaprio apparently believes in this. You could argue that after more than 20 years, he truly wants that Oscar, a prize that has shockingly been denied from him over and over again. DiCaprio earns it here—there's no question about that. In The Revenant, directed by Aalejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who won three Oscars for Birdman, he plays real-life figure Hugh Glass, who, in 1823, was attached by a bear and left for dead yet crawled back and survived.

This movie is simultaneously a story of survival and a story of revenge. The revenge elements are unfortunately fairly uninspiring. The survival scenes, however, are unlike just about any other you've ever seen. Film critic Patrick Bromley mentioned on his podcast how he sometimes wakes up with neck pain if he sleeps incorrectly on his Swedish mattress. His point was that compared to most people of the mid-19^th century, most of us from the present would be long gone if we had to survive in the wilderness of what was then the Dakota Territory. Everyone back then appeared to be horribly malicious, at least from what occurs in this film, and Glass' colleague John Fitzgerald, who was scalped by Indians and therefore deeply hates Glass partly because of his half-Indian son (Forrest Goodluck), particularly so. Fitzgerald is played by Tom Hardy, who had quite a year, having also appeared in the acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road. Watching Hardy throughout his career, I usually am annoyed by his accents, regardless of what it is; whatever role he plays, it tends to require subtitles. Here, however, he's quite good. It's an intimidating performance; with one single, slow turn of his head, he says more than he needs to throughout the rest of the film.


I'm a product of American culture and history, so I know next to nothing about the American Indian tribes depicted here. I can't say how accurate its depictions are, but the days of Anthony Quinn are long gone; there are American Indians cast here, like Melaw Nakehk'o as a young Arikara woman captured by French fur trappers, and Arthur Redcloud as a Pawnee man who assists Glass in his journey home. The other actors are pretty good, too. Domhnall Gleeson (who may be the actor of the year, having also starred in Star Wars--The Force Awakens, Ex Machina, and Brooklyn) is the captain of the party. Will Poulter is also here as a young member of the trappers. who is conflicted about his complacency in what the crew (particularly Fitzgerald) has done to Glass.

 
But DiCaprio is the one everyone is talking about. DiCaprio, it should be noted, does overdo it in a scene or two, but find me a movie in which he doesn't. He almost never relies on his voice for this performance; it's like something from a silent film. Having serious damage to his larynx from the bear attack, he's mostly left to communicate in a tactile manner. This helps DiCaprio, because accents are not his thing. Watch Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, and Blood Diamond and tell me those are good accents.

Inarritu is not my favorite director, but this is eons better than Birdman. He has taken his cast and crew into the deep, dangerous (and cold) wilderness of the U.S. and Canada to film some absolutely gorgeous locations. There hasn't really been a movie like this in a while, and not since The Grey in 2012 has there been a shoot that has looked so painful. Indeed, the production has come under criticism for the dangerous filming, with one member calling it a "living hell." That being said, Glass escapes death so many times that it's hard not to role one's eyes. He's clinging to death when I think most of us (well, at least me) would easily give up, but why doesn't he? Revenge. When we are pricked, do we not bleed? And when we're left for dead after a bear nearly kills us, do we not really, really want to hurt the jerks who left us?

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The Best Films of 2015 (And the Most Overrated)

Hey there, cats and kittens.

The year 2015 was not as dismal as 2014 in terms of movies, but it was still not a phenomenal year. There were lots of good movies--movies as varied as Ant-Man, Slow West, Listen to Me Marlon, and others--and there weren't as many overrated movies. Some of the best of the year were truly phenomenal and should be seen by everyone; some of them include the following:

Paddington
It's disappointing that 2015 featured the return of puppetry with Star Wars and a bear that nearly ate Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revanant, but we still have a CG protagonist in Paddington. Still, this is a great family film, and even though the title character doesn't have an iota of realism in how he looks, he's still a terrific character in a family film championing the role of family. The cast, which includes Ben Winshaw, Sally Hawkins, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi, is spot on, and Nicole Kidman does a fine job in her first role (to my knowledge) as the villain. In one particular moment, she's far too nefarious, but that scene is the only blight in this otherwise fine film.

Trainwreck
I was very much prepared to hate this movie. From the few clips I've seen of Amy Schumer's hit Comedy Central show, Inside Amy Schumer, I wasn't impressed. And Trainwreck is a fairly standard rom-com in many respects, mostly poking fun at the genre but then suddenly embracing it. But I quickly loved this hysterical comedy. Schumer plays a woman whose rule is to never spend the night post-sex with a man. She's a "modern chick who does what she wants" and sleeps with whomever she wants, even though she's seeing someone, an incredibly muscular bro who actually is kind of sweet but a little dumb. That character is played by professional wrestler John Cena in one of the film's funniest roles, particularly as he uses sports lingo to talk dirty in the bedroom. Another sports figure who appears (as himself) is the surprisingly hysterical LeBron James, who according to the film, appears to be quite the fan of Downton Abbey. "Listen," he says, "I'm watching it tonight, because I'm not going to practice and all the guys are talking about it and I'm left out." Why exactly did this lose Best Comedy to The Martian (apparently a rip-roaring laugh fest) at the Golden Globes?

Brooklyn
Brooklyn is a simple movie, perhaps the simplest on the list, and yet it is one of the best of the year. It feels like a story we've seen over and over again, and yet it feels so fresh. Its supporting cast is charming, particularly Emory Cohen, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Domhnall Gleeson. But the real star is of course the lead, Saoirse Ronan, who plays Eilis, a young lady who emigrates from Ireland to the United States in the 1960s. Her performance is one of the very best of the year. In the hands of a weaker writer and director, the choices her character has to make would be much easier from the audience's perspective. Not so with director John Crowley and writer Nick Hornby, adapting Colm Toibin's novel of the same name, who really make just about all the right moves.

Inside Out
Inside Out is a movie that tells children (and adults) that sadness is a necessary, even helpful, emotion. This is the most emotionally powerful Pixar film since WALL-E and Up, and while it's not as unforgettable as those films, it deserves to be in their rank. Few animated films look anywhere near this incredible, and what a cast to back it all up, including Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Richard Kind, Bill Hader, Lewis Black, Mindy Kaling, and others. Many were disappointed with Pixar's follow-up later in the year, The Good Dinosaur, and many are nervous about the upcoming sequel to Finding Nemo, but let's hope Pixar still has a plethora of other fantastic tales to tell.

Room
Room is just about as perfect as a movie can be, a movie that had water in my eyes and a lump in my throat for practically its entirety. There are few films this powerful, this well written, this well acted, this well directed, this exceptional in virtually every way. The entire cast is great, but of course the best accolades should go to its two leads, Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay, who are truly exceptional. Larson (who also played Amy Schumer's sister in Trainwreck) hands-down deserves the Oscar. This might be the best movie of the decade.

Note: The trailer for Room is the reason why there should be no movie trailers at all. I was stunned to watch it (fortunately, after I had seen the film) and to see that a pivotal moment in the movie is completely revealed in the trailer. Don't watch the trailer before seeing the movie!

Honorable Mentions

Ex Machina
Ex Machina is the best science fiction film of the year, giving us a terrific directorial debut from screenwriter Alex Garland and three great performances from Alicia Vikander, Domhnall Gleeson, and Oscar Isaac. All three of these stars had a phenomenal 2015, with Vikander the front-runner for an Academy Award for The Danish Girl, and Isaac and Gleeson appearing in the biggest film of the year: Star Wars--The Force Awakens. Gleeson may have overdone it in Star Wars, but he was charming in Brooklyn and vulnerable here in Ex Machina. Vikander's role, particularly during the climax, is haunting, and Isaac definitely performs the dance of the year in the film's lone offbeat comedic scene.

What We Do In the Shadows
What We Do In the Shadows has a much funnier first half than second. Upon second thought, I realize that I watched the first half in the hospital right before my tonsillectomy, and the second half right after, so that probably had something to do with my reaction. Still, this mockumentary from New Zealand about vampires is one of the funniest of the year.

I Am Big Bird: The Carol Spinney Story
This documentary about Carol Spinney, the man behind Oscar the Grouch and Big Bird, starts off the same sort of bland way that dominated much of the 2011 documentary Being Elmo. The second half, however, really elevates the story, as the viewer truly gets a sense of just how enormous a presence someone like Spinney has remained for the past several decades.

Mission Impossible--Rogue Nation
I never thought there would be a year in which a Mission: Impossible movie would be better than a Bond movie, but in 2015 that was definitely the case. This is the best in the franchise since the first in 1996, and probably justifies its continuing.

The Walk
Sure, Man on Wire won the Oscar for Best Documentary about Philippe Petit, the man who walked on a wire from both towers of the World Trade Center in 1974, but you really cannot understand that feat without having a visual effects powerhouse like what director Robert Zemeckis and his team deliver in The Walk. True, most of the film is good, not great, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt's accent is, well, as a vast majority of respondents in one poll put it: "Sacreblue! He might as well wire walk with a French accordion and a croissant." Still, the final third of the film--the walk--is a tremendous work of special effects.

The Hunting Ground
This is the kind of documentary that will leave your blood boiling. If your friend tries to tell you there is no such thing as rape culture, show them this film.


Best Trailers

Forget my above criticism of trailers for just a moment to appreciate three trailers that I did watch in 2015 and enjoy. If you're going to do a trailer, these film makers show you how to do it right:

3. Creed

2. Suicide Squad (click here to watch the even better second trailer, released this past January)

1. Star Wars--The Force Awakens

Actress of the Year

Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl, Burnt, The Man From U.N.C.L.E., Ex Machina)

Actor of the Year

Domhnall Gleeson (The Revenant, Star Wars--The Force Awakens, Brooklyn, Ex Machina)

Comebacks of the Year

Jennifer Jason Leigh (Anomalisa, The Hateful Eight)

Kurt Russell (Furious 7, Bone Tomahawk, The Hateful Eight)

But a negative note must end this post. Movies still "aren't what they used to be," at least in terms of quantity. For every great film the critics told us to go out and see, there were twice as many piles of feces they sold us. Some of these films we have ourselves to blame; perhaps if Jurassic World didn't make nearly two billion dollars (and had over seventy percent of critics not liked it), we wouldn't have to suffer through anymore of these. Some of them (Timbuktu) were missed opportunities, others (The Duke of Burgundy) were dreadfully boring, and some were just pure garbage, like the number one pick for the most overrated movies of 2015:

Honorable Mention: White God

10. Girlhood

9. Jurassic World

8. Cinderella

7. Predestination

6. Timbuktu

5. The Duke of Burgundy

4. Testament of Youth

3. The Avengers: Age of Ultron

2. Shaun the Sheep

1. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

2015 was better than 2014, but let's hope 2016 is better than 2015.

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