Oscar Predictions

Best Supporting Actor
This is one of the most challenging to predict this year. If the Oscar's play it safe, they'll pick Tommy Lee Jones for his role as abolitionist congressman Thaddeus Stevens. Particularly if it turns out that "Lincoln" ends up sweeping the Oscars, then Jones will easily ride those coattails. But "Lincoln" has had a rough couple of months; it owes it's likely win for Best Director due to the fact that Ben Affleck simply isn't nominated, and there has been a bit of a backlash against Tommy Lee Jones, I think for good reasons. For one, while it's hard not to admire Jones as an actor, in this performance he doesn't do much except yell a lot. Whereas the scenes with Daniel Day-Lewis in the title role are riveting, with Jones they are distracting. He hits usual, expected notes and with his usual Southern accent (Stevens was from Pennsylvania).

Jones' chief rival is Christoph Waltz for "Django Unchained." I would prefer Waltz to win over Jones, but (and this is a bit unfair), I don't think it's as good as a performance as he gave in the other movie with Tarantino he did ("Inglorious Basterds") which won him an Oscar. Alan Arkin was fine in "Argo," but he gives essentially the same performance he gave in his Academy Award-winning role in "Little Miss Sunshine," and if I didn't think he deserved it then, I don't think he deserves it for "Argo." That leaves Philip Seymour Hoffman for "The Master" and Robert De Niro for "Silver Linings Playbook." Hoffman is fine in "The Master" but not particularly noteworthy. De Niro, however, shines in one of his best performances in years. Here is an actor who is noted for his violent yet frequently complex characters and comedic roles in more recent ones. But it's rare to see De Niro in an emotional role, one in which the movie partially depends on how the father-son relationship plays out. He pulls it off terrifically.

While De Niro has not won any major prizes this cycle, the good folks over Goldderby have him only slightly behind the frontrunner, Tommy Lee Jones.

Who should win: Robert De Niro
Who will win: Tommy Lee Jones

Best Animated Feature
As long as the Academy does not award "Brave," I will mostly be happy. How disappointing a movie like "Brave" is (please see "The Most Overrated Movies of 2012," coming soon). Anyway, while "Wreck-It-Ralph" and "ParaNorman" are both admirable, enjoyable movies, the really winner here should be "Frankenweenie." This is Tim Burton's best movie in years, an homage to the B-movies of his youth (though I will concede it's getting old) and a unique reminder about the importance of science. Not only is the animation more impressive, but it's also a better movie. Still, with the Golden Globe going to "Brave" and the Annie Awards going to "Wreck-It-Ralph," it doesn't seem like this is Burton's year (the Academy has never shown much appreciation for him).

What should win: "Frankenweenie"
What will win: "Wreck-It-Ralph"

Best Supporting Actress
Nobody thinks Anne Hatheway won't win for her emotional performance in "Les Miserables." It is a commendable performance, and she will (and probably should) win. With that being said, not enough praise has been given to Helen Hunt in "The Sessions." Playing a character much more dangerous and complex than any found in "Les Miserables," Hunt navigates a precarious role that few other performers could. Some will say that she should be denied the award because she was "only nominated because of all the nudity." But her performance is so much more than this. Scenes with her and her interactions with John Hawkes, who stars as a paralyzed man in need of sex education, are some of the most emotional scenes of the year. Hatheway was excellent in "Les Miserables," but the Academy voters should consider Hunt as well.

Who should win: Anne Hatheway or Helen Hunt
Who will win: Anne Hatheway

Best Picture

So many nominees. What shouldn't win? I didn't hate "Les Miserables" like some did, and I highly recommend seeing a theatrical production of it. Still, "Les Miserables" is one of the weakest of the nominees (but not as weak as "Beasts of the Southern Wild"). "Zero Dark Thirty" is provocative, well-written, and controversial, but it's a bit dull compared to Kathryn Bigelow's previous film, "The Hurt Locker." "Life of Pi" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are both crowd favorites but are certainly underdogs here. That leaves a horse race between "Lincoln" and "Argo," with the latter having the most momentum. But the really terrific movies here are "Amour" and "Django Unchained." Both don't have a shot, but both are certainly better. "Amour" is Michael Haneke's most impressive work and Quentin Tarantino does a fine job with his tribute to spaghetti westerns in "Django Unchained."

What should win: "Amour"
What will win: "Argo"