All These Scandals Means...Another Four More Years?

Republicans must be really excited these days. The Obama administration is engulfed in three "scandals" (none of which can be directly linked to the President himself). Regardless, they see blood and they are thirsty. 2016 is bound to return the White House to Republican hands. For one, as mentioned, President Obama is engulfed in "scandals." Second, history is our guide--can you name many times when one of the two parties held onto the White House for more than eight years? The last time that happened was twenty years ago. (Although, technically, with Al Gore's popular vote victory in 2000, it actually wasn't too long ago.) So it's just about guaranteed that Republicans will win in 2016, no matter what. Right?

Well, maybe not. Unfortunately for them, as of now, things aren't looking too good.



1. Demographics are seriously against them.  

In a little-noticed article from Nate Silver, he presented an interactive electoral map of the U.S. from 2016 to 2048. Readers can adjust the levels of new voters, assuming an immigration reform amnesty bill were to be passed. As you can see, if you start off at 50-50 (50% of unauthorized immigrants who become citizens and 50% who vote), then the map is identical to President Obama's 2012 victory.



But let's say you're a pessimist and assume no bill will pass and the roughly 12 million undocumented workers will remain that way. Surely the Republicans are projected to do better, right?

Nope. As you can see, even if it's 0-0, the map is the same. Republicans may be concerned about their electoral chances with or without an immigration bill, but even if there is none, assuming demographic behavior stays constant, the Republicans are in a huge amount of long-term trouble.

How about 2048? Even if no immigration reform bill is passed, Democrats are projected to increase their electoral victories by more than forty votes! Now the blue spreads to North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. And what if some sort of immigration reform is passed?

Wow. Texas--Texas--is blue.   

As you can see, demographics are changing. The Republican base (older white voters) is decreasing while the Democratic base (minorities) is increasing. Beyond that, there was a damning report this week about the GOP's perception among younger voters, who overwhelmingly voted for President Obama in both elections and are still not impressed by the Republicans. How do young Americans view the GOP?  "Close-minded," "old-fashioned," "racist," and Latino voters believe that the Republicans "couldn't care less about them." On the economy: "We've become the party that will pat you on the back when you make it, but won't offer you a hand to help you get there."

Republicans need to change--asap--if they want to start winning presidential elections again.     

2. Even without demographics, they might be in trouble.

The best book about presidential history and campaigns is Allan Lichtman's The Keys to the White House. It details a model he developed with a Russian earthquake science to predict which party would win the White House based on an analysis of every presidential election from 1860 to 1980. Their track record? From 1984 to 2012, the model accurately predicted the winner every single time. The way it works is there are thirteen statements (or "keys") regarding the economy, foreign policy, incumbent/opponent charisma, etc. None of the keys have anything to do with debates, commercials, or anything like that. If the statement is false, the key goes against the incumbent party. Six false keys means the incumbent party loses. For example, look at the 2012 race. Key 2 states that "there is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination." For 2012, this was obviously true, so it worked in President Obama's favor. For 2008, most keys worked against the incumbent Republicans.  

For 2016, as of now, I predict five false keys will be against the Democrats--1, 3, 7, 11, and 12--one short of the Republicans winning. That being said, if I'm correct that those five will be false, then all it takes is one tiny key to turn false for a Republican win, according to Lichtman's model. It's true that there could be a serious battle between Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, but I doubt they will challenge each other. It's obvious that with Democrats, Biden is liked but Hillary is loved, and therefore, most Democrats are keeping their fingers crossed that she is the nominee. (Regardless, Key 12 regarding incumbent charisma will likely go against them; they're both fairly likable and great campaigners, but they don't have the charisma of Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy, or Barack Obama.)

3. For yet a third cycle, Republicans have mediocre candidates. 

Other than Marco Rubio, I can't see any of the possible Republican nominees being formidable. Because Chris Christie did the oh-so-un-Republican thing of being respectful to President Obama, he certainly won't be the nominee. (His recent moves regarding a replacement for the late Frank Lautenberg have done him no favors.) Bobby Jindal? He still hasn't recovered from national missteps. Rand Paul is still too extreme for the country and even for the Republican nomination. The Democrats should only fear Rubio, the Republican Obama.    

4. The economy is improving.

Facts are facts. At the beginning of President Obama's term, when he and his team hadn't even located the light switches yet, jobs were hemorrhaging by a horrifying 800,000 a month. For the past two years, however, the economy has been adding jobs. Additionally, our deficits are shrinking, and in April, the U.S. government ran a $113 billion surplus. (Obama's immediate predecessor, by the way, inherited a $5 trillion surplus and turned it into an $8 trillion deficit.) The problem with our shrinking deficits is that while we may be celebrating now, we are actually doing deficit reduction entirely the wrong way. While deficits are decreasing now, causing a drag on our economy, they are projected to increase again by the end of the decade. Essentially, we've found ways to do short-term fixes (sequestration, letting all the Bush tax cuts expire for the wealthiest) but not long-term (health care costs, letting the Bush tax cuts expire). This may or may not help the Republicans in 2016.  
  

For the record, if I were forced to bet today about who would win in 2016, I would bet that it would be the Republicans. As everyone knows, it's very rare for a party to hold onto the White House for more than eight years. That being said, instead of numerous variables working in their favor, only some of them are. If they do want to win, they better step it up as well as hope President Obama's second term is less successful than his first term. Republicans have lost the past five out of six presidential elections. At this rate, they may lose the next eight.